The opposition Congress party in Assam is grappling with defections. Consequently, it may face considerable difficulty challenging the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections. Congress has been out of power since 2016. It will have to counter the BJP’s strong organizational base, the dynamic leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, and the development and welfare schemes launched by the current BJP government.
Who will benefit Congress?
Analyzing the Congress’s position in Assam, the anti-incumbency wave in the state could swing in its favor. The party could benefit from the support of minority voters, particularly Bengali-speaking Muslims. It’s worth noting that the ruling BJP had thrown its weight behind its candidate in 2024. Despite this, Gaurav Gogoi’s victory in the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat by a wide margin, and the Congress’s re-nomination of him as its Chief Ministerial candidate this time, will boost the party’s morale.
Many leaders left Congress
The Congress party in Assam has suffered several setbacks over the past decade. Several leaders, including current Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, have defected to the BJP. The most recent setback was the defection of former state president Bhupen Bora and three other MLAs to the saffron party. The Congress party’s lack of a cohesive organizational structure, especially at the grassroots level, can also play a role in its downfall. This is evident from the shift in the number of tea garden workers during the assembly and parliamentary elections held since 2014. These workers, once a significant Congress vote bank, have now shifted their influence to the BJP.
Opportunity for Congress
This is an opportunity for the Congress to capitalize on the anti-incumbency wave and swing the mandate in its favor. The party can also capitalize on disgruntled elements within the ruling NDA coalition and bring them into its fold. The continued exodus of prominent leaders and activists poses a threat to the Congress party, having a detrimental impact. The ruling NDA’s organizational and administrative machinery will also pose a challenge to the Congress in Assam.
